Development of System Dynamics Model to Increase Salt Fulfillment Ratio

Muhandhis, Isnaini and Susanto, Heri and Asfari, Ully (2019) Development of System Dynamics Model to Increase Salt Fulfillment Ratio. Procedia Computer Science, 161. pp. 867-875. ISSN 1877-0509

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Abstract

Salt demands in Indonesia have continued to increase over the past decade, while salt production fluctuates and still depends on weather conditions. This makes salt imports tend to increase and salt self-sufficiency is difficult to achieve. Indonesia needs serious efforts to achieve self-sufficiency, both consumption salt and industrial salt. In this study we identify problems that exist in the salt industry and determine the factors that have a significant effect on the system. The national salt production system is represented in a dynamic model using the System Dynamic. We use System Dynamic based on the consideration that this framework offers the ability to combine expert knowledge in the model and the ability to model non-linear behavior that has a significant contribution to the national salt production. System dynamic modeling is also able to associate between variables in a closed causal loop so that actions taken by changing one variable will have an impact on the initial conditions. From the base model simulation results, we developed several scenarios to increase salt fulfillment ratio. To support the sustainability of the salt business, we make a price scenario that supports salt business remains profitable for farmers. To increase salt production, we provide a scenario of increasing productivity through optimal technology implementation. As a result of the two scenarios, total salt production reaches 5 million tons per year. The fulfillment ratio of consumption salt and industrial salt can be achieved.

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